From the printed version

By Antonis Tsimplakis
atsimp@naftemporiki.gr

The prospects of tourism, especially for countries like Greece that rely heavily on the tourism industry for the course of their economy, are currently extremely uncertain.

GBR Consulting makes this point in its analysis, noting data such as rising pandemic cases worldwide, virus mutations in the UK, South Africa and Brazil, the tightest lockdowns in a number of countries, the slow start of the vaccination process, but also the delays in the delivery of vaccines, which compose the “blurred picture” that the tourism industry has in its hands for this season.

Important for the course of the year in our country is expected to be the course of vaccinations in the country, but also in our traditional markets.

So far the bookings are at extremely low levels and in no case can be compared to the corresponding period last year, with tourism market executives pointing out to “N” that in case the vaccinations proceed according to schedules, then they will play a decisive role this year. last minute bookings.

As the CEO of the hotel group, Sani / Ikos, Andreas Andreadis, pointed out in a post on Twitter: “The key to this tourist season is to avoid excessive restrictions and not the demand that will be one of the highest in the world. “As long as safe and flexible strategies are launched soon, plus bilateral agreements with key countries, such as Britain, Russia and Israel.”

The former president of SETE has also pointed out about the course of vaccinations in our country: “The level of 70% by the end of summer is probably acceptable for non-tourist countries like Germany, but not for countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal that rely in tourism. It must have been reached there by the beginning of the summer, as in England. ”

The position expressed by the president of the Panhellenic Hoteliers Federation (POX), Grigoris Tassios, is similar, who underlined: “We must be the first choice for tourists this summer and it will depend on whether we manage to keep” green “Our country on the map of Europe with epidemiological data. It is still early to make predictions, but we hope that either the Resurrection of the Catholics (April 4) or the Orthodox (May 2) can bring the first arrivals to our country and give us the impetus for a better year, although many of we are talking about 2022 from now on “.

Eurocontrol released two new scenarios for air traffic until the first half of 2021 on 28 January. Air traffic across Europe fell by around 64% in January 2021 compared to January 2020 and the situation is rapidly deteriorating as February and March will be extremely low traffic. Even April is expected to have a low yield, according to Eurocontrol, with a slight upward trend during the Easter period.

Flights are expected to be around 25% -30% of pre-pandemic flights.

The first scenario assumes that the European epidemiological situation will improve after March and that the most vulnerable citizens across Europe will have been vaccinated (despite the delays), facilitating the partial easing of national travel restrictions in the second quarter of the year. This means that unnecessary air travel will become more affordable during the second quarter and there will be an even greater recovery during the summer. In this scenario, the flights will be until June 2021 at -55% compared to 2019.

The second scenario shows an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the second quarter, but it is considered that many countries may choose not to relax their national travel restrictions, which will severely reduce demand and any possibility of improving air travel by summer to the best. case.

In Greece we expect a strong recovery of travel activity in the second half of this year. SETE estimates based on current data that the Greek tourism sector could achieve 50% of tourism revenue in 2019.